ai-chip-counts

Code for estimating quantities of AI chips

For more information, see: https://epoch.ai/data/ai-chip-sales https://epoch.ai/data/ai-chip-owners

nvidia_estimates, tpu_estimates, amd_estimates, etc generate estimates for chip sales by designer

nvidia_owners allocates Nvidia chips to hyperscaler and official Chinese owners using a revenue-based model. Other Nvidia owners are modeled separately in nvidia_owners_other, with the exception of smuggled Chinese chips, which are handled separately in v_diversion_and_resale.

Running and validating models

Chip-family models are being moved out of notebooks into <family>_model.py modules (TPU so far). For those families:

• python run_chip_model.py tpu (or all) reruns the model, rewrites the csv_export/ and owners_csv_export/ files, and validates the exports against the published dataset, ending with a per-family PASS/REVIEW summary.
• <family>_estimates.ipynb is the research notebook: it imports the model module and renders tables, charts, and sensitivity checks without owning the model logic.
• python validate_chip_sales.py --designer all (or the validate_chip_sales.ipynb notebook) compares the local CSVs against the currently published dataset on its own.

Families without a model module yet (Nvidia, AMD, Amazon) still run via their notebooks.