Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

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Pino90

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  • #50,521
    I can only Speak for Spain, France and Italy, but that list is waaay incomplete and quite a simplistic view of something that's way more complex than pro/against Russia.

    For instance, concerning Italy, the Democratic Party (PD, opposition, moderate left) is not pro Russia but is against sending weapons to Ukraine because pacifism. Same for the Green party (opposition). National Future (farer far right) is pro Russia and against sending weapons to Ukraine (this is the Italian equivalent of AfD, literal fascists). this last one is considered the main electoral threat to Meloni. The League Is literally financed by Russia and is in the government. They're the reason why Italian support has been so tepid.

    In Spain, Bildu (government, independentist left) is pro Russia and against sending weapons to Ukraine. Podemos (populist left, government) is not explicitly pro Russia but is against sending military help. They want Ukraine to surrender so that the war ends. We have a word for this: pacifakes (literal translation from both Italian and Spanish ) e.g. people who think they're pacifists but they're really useful idiots and assets for Russia.

    I can go on for a while (again) but I'm not sure it's useful.
     
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    slowtech

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  • #50,522
    Pino90 said:
    I can only Speak for Spain, France and Italy, but that list is waaay incomplete and quite a simplistic view of something that's way more complex than pro/against Russia.

    For instance, concerning Italy, the Democratic Party (PD, opposition, moderate left) is not pro Russia but is against sending weapons to Ukraine because pacifism. Same for the Green party (opposition). National Future (farer far right) is pro Russia and against sending weapons to Ukraine (this is the Italian equivalent of AfD, literal fascists). this last one is considered the main electoral threat to Meloni. The League Is literally financed by Russia and is in the government. They're the reason why Italian support has been so tepid.

    In Spain, Bildu (government, independentist left) is pro Russia and against sending weapons to Ukraine. Podemos (populist left, government) is not explicitly pro Russia but is against sending military help. They want Ukraine to surrender so that the war ends. We have a word for this: pacifakes (literal translation from both Italian and Spanish ) e.g. people who think they're pacifists but they're really useful idiots and assets for Russia.

    I can go on for a while (again) but I'm not sure it's useful.
    Click to expand...
    Ok. Well, you brought it up, so if you don't want to discuss it, that is fine.

    There is also the intangible issue of how important a party's position on Ukraine is to them. Nobody in a coalition gets everything they want, so the results are somewhat unpredictable.
     
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    karolus

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  • #50,523
    This political situation highlights a dichotomy between Western and Eastern Europe. Countries like Poland and the Baltic States are well-aware of Russia's MO, and have had the (dis)pleasure of being absorbed by the USSR/Russia at one point or another. Therefore they take it as a given that if Ukraine falls, they could be next. That political parties in Western Europe don't recognize this danger speaks volumes on their grasp of history. It also raises questions if they are infiltrated by Moscow.

    This isn't something like real estate zoning or taxation. It's existential.
     
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  • #50,524
    karolus said:
    This political situation highlights a dichotomy between Western and Eastern Europe. Countries like Poland and the Baltic States are well-aware of Russia's MO, and have had the (dis)pleasure of being absorbed by the USSR/Russia at one point or another. Therefore they take it as a given that if Ukraine falls, they could be next. That political parties in Western Europe don't recognize this danger speaks volumes on their grasp of history. It also raises questions if they are infiltrated by Moscow.

    This isn't something like real estate zoning or taxation. It's existential.
    Click to expand...
    Yes, but there seem to be pro-Russia parties in both parts of Europe, just of a different type. Three post-Soviet countries have pro-Russian parties in the government or in coalition with the government in Eastern Europe. Only Italy has that situation in Western Europe. Podemos is in coalition with the Socialists in Spain, but they are a minor partner and nobody is giving them any foreign policy responsibilities.

    There is a crisis in Centrist governments in Europe now. Happy hunting grounds for Putin's money. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
     
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    karolus

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  • #50,525
    The type of political "centrism" that has led to the current mess is a continual danger. It's basically "middle of the road" politics where leadership isn't doing the hard work of crafting cohesive visions which resonate with the public, but instead copping out by creating a compromise that few find palatable. This lazy type of politicking can work fine in times of general content, but becomes a serious liability when the situation shifts. The problem compounds since establishment politicians who built their careers on this system are now pushing back against needed reforms since their livelihoods depend on its continuance. This is how situations like the current US, France, Italy, and elsewhere happen.

    Charting a true middle path is extremely challenging. It's a task few politicians can handle.
     
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    DanNeely

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  • #50,526
    Cthel said:
    It will be interesting to see what sort of tactical changes this capability (200kg to 250km) force on the Russians, especially given the limited warning time afforded by the high speed.

    Will we see force concentrations pushed further back from the front line, if a recon drone spotting a group of trucks can call in a TBM strike within 10 minutes?
    Click to expand...

    Unless Ukraine's able to make them in huge numbers, probably similar to when the US was trickling ATACMS a few years ago. It pushed attack helicopters farther from the front, but that was really about it.

    I can't remember the lat time I've seen any mention of choppers being used, so that might not matter.

    Also, S300/400 mostly failed then, so we can assume that most of the FP7 will get through. The only question being how hardened their guidance is vs EW.
     
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    DanNeely

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  • #50,527
    1790970145061.png
     
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    Cthel

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  • #50,528
    Saturday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:
    • 157x Shahed & Gerbera aerial torpedoes & decoys (131 intercepted/missed/crashed, 14 unresolved)
    • 2+1 S8000 Banderol ALCMs

    View: https://t.me/kpszsu/82542

    1 - exact number not given; minimum number inferred
     
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    DanNeely

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  • #50,529
    Via Jompy's twitter a thread assessing the current state of Russia's tank force. (Non-twitter users see the mirror link for the full thread.)


    View: https://x.com/shellsandsteel/status/2106439955094589569#m


    Also, more signs that Russia is trying to do something with the T80 hulls with Ukrainian engines that have been rotting since '91.

    View: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/2106413567998414878#m


    Mirrors:
    https://nitter.space/shellsandsteel/status/2106439955094589569#m
    https://nitter.space/Jonpy99/status/2106413567998414878#m
     
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    Neverm1nd

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  • #50,530
    DanNeely said:
    Via Jompy's twitter a thread assessing the current state of Russia's tank force. (Non-twitter users see the mirror link for the full thread.)


    View: https://x.com/shellsandsteel/status/2106439955094589569#m


    Also, more signs that Russia is trying to do something with the T80 hulls with Ukrainian engines that have been rotting since '91.

    View: https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/2106413567998414878#m


    Mirrors:
    https://nitter.space/shellsandsteel/status/2106439955094589569#m
    https://nitter.space/Jonpy99/status/2106413567998414878#m
    Click to expand...

    Let's just say that the in-use count seems to be uncertain. The Military Balance Report from this year gives 1.750 - 2.000, for example. This source claims twice that.
     
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    Cthel

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  • #50,531
    Sunday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:
    • 135x Shahed & Gerbera aerial torpedoes & decoys/S8000 Banderol & Dan-T ALCMs (123 Shahed/Gerberas intercepted/missed/crashed, 2 Banderol/Dan-Ts intercepted/missed/crashed, 5 unresolved)

    View: https://t.me/kpszsu/82681
     
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    wagnerrp

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  • #50,532
    Neverm1nd said:
    Three engines failed during take off? That's either sabotage, or the fleet is falling apart at the seams.
    Click to expand...
    Apparently the Polish MOD claims this was the same bomber that fired a Kh-101 that crashed in Poland back in July, fueling speculation that Poland played a part in the loss.
     
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    Cthel

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  • #50,533
    Sounds like Ukraine's programme to develop an economical counter for the jet-powered Shaheds is bearing fruit.
    DeepL Translate said:
    By the end of October, Ukraine will begin using small missiles to counter jet-powered drones

    “The small missile programme – I won’t mention the name just yet – comprises several types. We will, of course, see the results in the second half of this month. We expect to see results,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a joint press conference with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
    Click to expand...

    The President clarified that he was referring specifically to domestically produced small missiles designed to counter jet-powered UAVs.
    Click to expand...

    View: https://t.me/ukrinform_news/170905

    It will be interesting to see what the system(s) look like when they're finally unveiled.
     
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    Cthel

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  • #50,534
    Not that I expect anyone in the thread has any irreplaceable data in Russian data centers, but it's probably a good idea for anyone who does to look into reconfiguring their backup strategy to include other countries.
    DeepL Translate said:
    Zelenskyy said he was surprised by Russia’s “brutal desire” to escalate the conflict further every day, and recalled that Russia was the first to launch strikes, in particular against “Nova Poshta” and Ukrposhta depots.

    “Now they’re striking bridges. Do they really think we won’t respond? They’re striking data centres. All of this is about people. It’s certainly not some sort of military infrastructure. How can you strike data centres and mobile networks? How can Putin do this? How can he not realise that mobile networks aren’t just used in Kyiv, in Ukraine? They’re used in Moscow too.”
    Click to expand...
    Click to expand...

    View: https://t.me/ukrpravda_news/84718
     
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    David Woodward

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  • #50,540
    From a The Conversation article on the front page
    And in early 2026, the Ukrainian military revealed its soldiers had been using Hypershell exoskeletons on the front lines to help with carrying artillery shells. According to test results, soldiers wearing the devices “become less fatigued, work faster, and maintain combat effectiveness for longer,” Colonel Vitalii Serdiuk told the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper in March.
    Click to expand...
    The dawn of the age of the exoskeleton Ars/The Conversation

    link in quote Paratroopers test exoskeletons for carrying heavy shells – video Ukrainska Pravda, March
     
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    Cthel

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  • #50,542
    Russia sunk a Turkish cargo ship full of Ukrainian maize off the coast of Romania (outside territorial waters)

    Zelensky condemns 'horrific' Russian strike on boat carrying corn in Black Sea
    BBC News said:
    Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned a "horrific" Russian attack on a vessel carrying corn in the Black Sea.

    The ship's captain was killed in the strike involving two drones, Zelensky said, and another sailor was unaccounted for. Eleven crew members - nationals of Azerbaijan and India - have been rescued.
    [...]
    Monday's attack by Russia targeted "a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Turkey", Volodymyr Zelensky said.

    He did not give the location of the ship, but Romania's interior ministry said it had sunk about 30 nautical miles south of its port of Sfantu Gheorghe.
    Click to expand...
    Maybe Turkiye should start escorting their ships...
     
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    VividVerism

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  • #50,543
    Cthel said:
    Russia sunk a Turkish cargo ship full of Ukrainian maize off the coast of Romania (outside territorial waters)

    Zelensky condemns 'horrific' Russian strike on boat carrying corn in Black Sea

    Maybe Turkiye should start escorting their ships...
    Click to expand...
    From the article, bolding mine:

    Western allies have faced a surge in so-called hybrid warfare incidents blamed on Russia, particularly in Poland and the Baltics in recent months.

    German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last Thursday that his country was preparing for further hybrid attacks, "including serious ones", after a drone armed with explosives was found in August on the tarmac at Leipzig airport close to Ukrainian cargo planes.

    The head of Germany's foreign intelligence Martin Jaeger said on Monday that "Germany is in danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia", which was "waging a shadow war" with the threat of attacks against targets in Germany remaining "real and imminent".
    Click to expand...

    It seems to me Germany (and NATO in general, as evidenced by the strike covered by the article) is already embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia. They just don't want to admit it or respond in kind.
     
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    Neverm1nd

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  • #50,544
    Cthel said:
    Russia sunk a Turkish cargo ship full of Ukrainian maize off the coast of Romania (outside territorial waters)

    Zelensky condemns 'horrific' Russian strike on boat carrying corn in Black Sea

    Maybe Turkiye should start escorting their ships...
    Click to expand...
    Pissing off Turkiye isn't particularly smart. So far, they've stayed on the side lines, but they can really ruin Russia's day in the Black Sea if they want to, and it's not like they haven't shot down Russian fighters before.
     
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    TheGnome

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  • #50,545
    Neverm1nd said:
    Pissing off Turkiye isn't particularly smart. So far, they've stayed on the side lines, but they can really ruin Russia's day in the Black Sea if they want to, and it's not like they haven't shot down Russian fighters before.
    Click to expand...
    This definitely calls for a muscular response on the part of Türkiye; if there are any Russian diplomats in Ankara, it's time to haul their asses in for excoriation before kicking them out of the country carrying notice that any Russian shipping in Turkish waters will be subject to immediate interdiction and seizure.
     
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    wagnerrp

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  • #50,546
    Neverm1nd said:
    Pissing off Turkiye isn't particularly smart. So far, they've stayed on the side lines, but they can really ruin Russia's day in the Black Sea if they want to, and it's not like they haven't shot down Russian fighters before.
    Click to expand...
    Is there even much Russian traffic still going through the Black Sea? I thought that ended a month ago.
     
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    Neverm1nd

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  • #50,547
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    DanNeely

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  • #50,549
    wagnerrp said:
    Is there even much Russian traffic still going through the Black Sea? I thought that ended a month ago.
    Click to expand...

    Looking at an activity map, doesn't seem to be much. Lots to Turkey and Romania, not a lot to Ukraine or Russia. Obvious traffic to both seems about the same, but short of clicking on each ship one at a time it's not clear whose ports all the traffic around the Danube river delta is going to.

    https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/BLACK-SEA/ship-traffic-tracker

    You can see the effects of GPS interference around Novorossiysk by the ships showing locations well inshore. :ROFLMAO:
     
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    FranzJoseph

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  • #50,550
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    karolus

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  • #50,551
    VividVerism said:
    From the article, bolding mine:



    It seems to me Germany (and NATO in general, as evidenced by the strike covered by the article) is already embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia. They just don't want to admit it or respond in kind.
    Click to expand...

    Just coming of a depressing call with a German relative, I can allude to why. Merz is walking a political tightrope. A good portion of the electorate is tied into the dezinformatsya—including said relative. They strongly believe that Ukraine is the antagonist, and that Russia will prevail. They argue Germany is being swallowed in debt due to the pointless support of Ukraine, as well as being inundated by refugees from said country. It's clear they are swallowing the AfD's talking points hook, line, and sinker.

    They don't seem to make the connection that the problems won't stop with Ukraine. Just ask Poland and the Baltic States.
     
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    FranzJoseph

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  • #50,552
    Just for the funny background, Biopreparat was the 1974+ biological weapons programme ("the largest and most sophisticated offensive biological warfare program known"), established right around when the CCCP ratified the Biological Weapons Convention banning biological warfare in 1975.

    I guess that says all about (then Soviet) Russia and their international promises…
     
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    slowtech

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  • #50,554
    Neverm1nd said:
    Things are going great for Russia. How about an outbreak of pneumonic plague?

    https://kyivindependent.com/plague-...andates-in-russias-irkutsk-region-in-siberia/

    Of course the authorities first confirmed it, then denied it, and the local mask mandate and three quarantined hospitals are just due to "seasonal respiratory infections"...
    Click to expand...
    I'm not sure if this is just sensationalism, or there is more information we aren't privy to. Plague outbreaks happen all the time, all over the world. The CDC says an average of seven per year in the US. It can be treated with antibiotics pretty effectively.

    The thing that makes me think there is more to this is the fact that the official story is that this woman broke a vial a week before her death. Why was she not treated? Two reasons come to mind: the bacillus is a weaponized form that is antibiotic-resistant, or it wasn't actually plague, but something worse.

    Or it could be just hysterical headlines driven by the word "plague".

    EDIT: Semi-ninja-ed for not reading the whole thread first.
     
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    slowtech

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  • #50,556
    Technarch said:
    A third possible reason is that healthcare in Russia is even worse than in the U.S.
    Click to expand...
    Yeah, but if it was treatable, there wouldn't be such a big response (from the front page piece):

    Former Rospotrebnadzor head Gennady Onishchenko said Friday that Shipilova’s infection was “most likely not the plague” but that there “will be no spread of this disease,” CNN reported.
    Click to expand...
     
    wireframed

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  • #50,558
    slowtech said:
    Yeah, but if it was treatable, there wouldn't be such a big response (from the front page piece):
    Click to expand...
    Oh shit. That means its definitely the plague and there WILL be massive spread. Oh well, it’s been nearly a decade since the last pandemic, we’re due another one. :-
     
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    vhoracek

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  • #50,560
    German investigators arrested former BND (Federal Intelligence Service) director August Hanning and his collaborator Manfred D. on suspicion of espionage and treason. Hanning led the BND between 1998 and 2005; he then worked as secretary at the Interior Ministry until 2009. Manfred D. worked at the BND as head of office until early 2026 and reportedly supplied confidential and secret information to Hanning until 2022 at least. Hanning then passed the information to an unspecified foreign actor, and even produced a comprehensive security analysis for a foreign intelligence service (according to ARD, it was not a Russian one). Hanning's home was raided by federal investigators in 2023 an unrelated case of attempted kidnapping, and the search produced a device containing a trove of confidential documents to which he should not have had access.

    https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/bnd-hanning-100.html
     
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